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Bad Bank

Six ans après la crise, plus de 1.000 milliards d’euros d’actifs douteux ou illiquides restent stockés dans les « bad banks ». Nous devrons payer pour Dexia jusqu'en 2076! Voir ci-dessous une série d'articles des Echos, mis bout à bout.

Une bombe de 1000 milliards d'euros

Eclipsée par la crise des dettes souveraines et par la récession des économies réelles, la crise des « subprimes » n’est pas une affaire classée. Détonateur de la bombe financière européenne, elle laisse une facture que les banques et les Etats européens ne sont pas près de régler. Pour se sauver, de grands établissements de crédit, paralysés par les créances douteuses et les actifs illiquides accumulés au fil des ans depuis 2007, ont constitué des « bad banks ». Bilan, six ans après le début de la crise financière : plus de 1.000 milliards d’euros d’actifs restent encore stockés dans ces structures de défaisance en Europe.

En amont, la création de ces dernières répond toujours à la nécessité de tirer un trait arbitraire sur les actifs toxiques et non stratégiques, pour que les activités cœur de métier restent attractives aux yeux des investisseurs. Mais les « bad banks » peuvent prendre différentes formes : une structure nationale rachetant des actifs aux banques privées, comme l’a fait l’Irlande avec la Nama (National Asset Management Agency) ; une banque insolvable nationalisée et séparée en « good bank » et « bad bank » ; et enfin une structure de cantonnement à l’intérieur d’un établissement privé.

Partie émergée de l’iceberg

C’est le schéma retenu par plusieurs banques françaises. Dont, en tête, Dexia. La « bad bank » de l’établissement franco-belge recensait fin mars 266 milliards d’euros d’actifs douteux gérés en extinction. Un record en Europe. Mais deux des poids lourds du secteur ont également eu recours à une « bad bank » interne. Natixis, la banque de financement et d’investissement du groupe coopératif BPCE, s’est doté en 2009 d’une GAPC (gestion active des portefeuilles cantonnés), regroupant 35 milliards d’actifs toxiques ou illiquides. Quatre ans plus tard, à la fin mars 2013, la banque n’en gérait plus « que » 13,5 milliards, misant sur la fermeture de sa GAPC à la mi-2014. La Société Générale suit une trajectoire analogue : sa « bad bank » Inter Europe Conseil, constituée début 2010 avec 35,5 milliards d’euros d’actifs douteux, en rassemblait 8,8 milliards à la fin de 2012.

Les plus de 1.000 milliards logés au sein des « bad banks » européennes ne constituent toutefois que la partie émergée de l’iceberg. Des centaines de milliards de créances douteuses et de fonds communs de créance, dont la valeur de marché s’est brutalement dégradée, figurent dans les livres des banques européennes. La banque de financement et d’investissement du Crédit Agricole, Cacib, n’a pas créé de « bad bank » et ne détenait plus, à la fin 2012, que 1,15 milliard d’actifs douteux en cours de cession.

Ces actifs dégradés, que les Etats, les banques et les marchés savent si mal évaluer, constituent-ils une bombe financière à retardement ? Une gestion à très long terme, en extinction ou au gré des opportunités de marché, permettra aux banques de digérer leurs erreurs. Mais elle pèse sur le dynamisme du secteur financier.

Il faudra 63 ans pour liquider les actifs de Dexia

La structure de défaisance de Dexia est à la mesure des rêves de grandeurs de ses anciens dirigeants. Le groupe bancaire franco-belge, qui affichait une taille de bilan de 650 milliards d’euros à la fin 2008, s’est depuis transformé en une immense « bad bank » abritant fin mars 266 milliards d’euros d’actifs résiduels. Les représentants de Dexia martèlent qu’elle n’est pas une « bad bank », en ce sens que, contrairement à nombre de structures de ce type, seulement 14 % de ses actifs sont douteux (non « investment grade »).

Peut-être, mais ces actifs n’en restent pas moins impossibles à vendre rapidement, sous peine d’engendrer une crise systémique. Karel De Boeck, l’administrateur délégué de Dexia, assure qu’une liquidation immédiate du groupe entraînerait entre 40 et 50 milliards d’euros de pertes.

Cette menace a de quoi faire frissonner tant est longue la maturité des actifs, qui n’ont pu être vendus à la suite du démantèlement de la banque, fin 2011. Leur échéance moyenne est en effet de treize ans. « En 2020, il restera 150 milliards, mais l’échéance moyenne sera toujours de treize ans, en raison des engagements à trente ou quarante ans qui subsisteront », expliquait Robert de Metz, président du conseil d’administration de Dexia, le 22 mai aux députés de la commission des Finances. Il faudra patienter jusqu’en 2076 pour tourner définitivement la page Dexia…

Otage des marchés

Or, contrairement à un établissement bancaire encore debout, la banque n’a plus le droit de générer de l’activité nouvelle qui lui apporterait des moyens supplémentaires. Ce alors même que le plan de résolution de Dexia validé fin 2012 par la Commission européenne prévoit que l’établissement bancaire enregistrera encore cette année une perte de près de 1 milliard d’euros, de 500 millions en 2014 et encore de 250 millions environ en 2015. Un retour à l’équilibre n’est pas attendu avant 2018.

Dexia est donc l’otage des marchés pour se refinancer. « Une variation de seulement 1 % du coût de financement représente 2,5 milliards d’euros », soit la moitié du capital de Dexia, précisait Robert de Metz lors de son audition. Et de conclure : « Il suffit d’un dérapage somme toute marginal pour arriver à des sommes énormes. » Le plan de résolution de Dexia a intégré certains scénarios extrêmes que la garantie de refinancement de 85 milliards d’euros apportée par la Belgique et la France doit permettre d’absorber sans voir fondre les fonds propres de la banque.

Mais « on ne peut exclure que la réalité s’écarte de nos prévisions », reconnaît Karel De Boeck. Il n’était déjà pas prévu qu, en condamnant Dexia en février, le tribunal de grande instance de Nanterre ouvrirait la voie à une avalanche d’assignations d’élus français refusant de rembourser leurs prêts…

Une « bad bank » privée garantie par l'Etat en Espagne

La Sareb a quinze ans pour vendre les 197.000 biens et crédits immobiliers transférés à son bilan lors de la recapitalisation des banques.

Une grande partie des actifs douteux qui ont nécessité la création des « bad banks », qu'elles soient espagnoles, allemandes, américaines, françaises ou britanniques, est basée sur le secteur immobilier.

Inexistant il y a un an, le nom de la Société de Gestion d'Actifs de la Restructuration Bancaire (Sareb) est désormais un incontournable du lexique financier espagnol. La constitution de cette structure de défaisance sans licence bancaire avant fin 2012 était une des conditions imposées par l'Union européenne à la recapitalisation des banques espagnoles.

La Sareb, contrairement à son homologue irlandaise, est contrôlée à 55 % par des investisseurs privés, essentiellement des banques et des assureurs, dans le but explicite de ne pas alourdir la dette de l'Etat. Le reste est public. Toutefois, ses fonds propres de 4,8 milliards d'euros étant insuffisants pour acquérir les 50,8 milliards d'euros d'actifs toxiques transférés à son bilan, la Sareb a émis des obligations pour le même montant… garanties par l'Etat. Or le risque n'est pas nul : elle doit gérer, d'ici à sa liquidation en 2027, la vente de 197.000 actifs composés de crédits promoteurs et d'immeubles qui lestaient les bilans des banques nationalisées ou ayant reçu des aides publiques, et transférés avec une décote moyenne de 50 %. La Sareb promet en échange une rentabilité de 13 % à 14 % aux actionnaires, et donc à l'Etat.

Concurrence du privé

Pour cela, elle veut aller vite et vendre 45.000 logements en cinq ans. Or, jusqu'en mai, elle ne s'en était défait que de 550. Des sources proches de l'entité affirment néanmoins que ce processus est exponentiel et qu'elle a déjà été approchée par des fonds d'investissement, essentiellement étrangers. D'après la presse, elle aurait récemment mis en vente un paquet d'actifs de 200 millions d'euros. Par ailleurs, elle peut compter sur des accords avec ses actionnaires. Santander a ainsi annoncé une ligne de crédit de 1 milliard d'euros maximum pour financer l'achat d'immeubles de la Sareb.

De quoi faire face à la concurrence du secteur financier qu'elle est censée sauver. En effet, certaines entités nationalisées ont créé leur propre structure de défaisance afin de gérer les actifs qui n'étaient pas de nature à entrer dans le giron de la Sareb. C'est le cas de NCG, qui cherche à vendre son unité d'actifs toxiques, dont la valeur n'a pas été rendue publique. Trois investisseurs, dont des étrangers, sont sur les rangs. C'est aussi le cas, à l'instar de Banco Popular ou BBVA, de certaines banques n'ayant pas accès à la Sareb. Leurs unités de gestion d'actifs problématiques continuent néanmoins de figurer dans leur bilan.

En Allemagne, les actifs à liquider formeraient la deuxième banque du pays

Près de 600 milliards d'euros d'actifs pourris ou non stratégiques restent à éliminer des bilans des banques allemandes.

Le paysage bancaire allemand compte pas moins de six « bad banks » héritées de la crise financière. Ces entités rassemblent des portefeuilles de produits structurés et dérivés, des prêts de plus ou moins bonne qualité et toute sorte d'actifs jugés non stratégiques. Selon nos calculs, 940 milliards d'euros ont ainsi été transférés depuis la fin 2008, ce qui en ferait la deuxième banque du pays en termes de taille. De ce fardeau de départ, il subsiste environ 580 milliards euros d'actifs à éliminer à un horizon inconnu.

Avec la crise, deux établissements très en vue, Hypo Real Estate (HRE) et WestLB, ont dû disparaître en tant que tels, leurs actifs toxiques ayant été placés dans deux « bad banks » sous l'égide du fonds de soutien public Soffin.

Céder sans perte de valeur

Pour HRE est venu la FMS Wertmanagement, chargé de liquider 176 milliards d'euros d'actifs, dont il reste un solde de 137 milliards à ce jour. Les pertes comptables se chiffrent à 21 milliards d'euros, avec l'espoir de voir se réduire cet abîme à l'avenir. La Erste Abwicklungsanstalt (EAA), liée à WestLB, a réduit, elle, de 70 milliards d'euros ses 200 milliards d'euros d'actifs en portefeuille, au prix de 2,5 milliards de pertes, qui ont mangé 80 % de son capital. Une injection de 480 millions d'euros doit permettre de tenir jusqu'à 2027, l'année de la fermeture prévue de l'EAA.

A l'image de Deutsche Bank, d'autres établissements traitent le sujet en interne. Chez Commerzbank, en partie étatisée, une unité dédiée gère 143 milliards d'euros d'actifs non stratégiques, sur 289 milliards à liquider « sans perte de valeur », souligne-t-on en interne. Selon le même exercice, la banque régionale HSH Nordbank, secouée par la crise dans le secteur maritime, s'attend à 4,5 milliards d'euros de pertes d'ici à 2025. La garantie des Länder actionnaires va passer de 7 à 10 milliards d'euros, selon un plan que Bruxelles doit approuver jeudi.

Les choses se présentent mieux chez BayernLB. La banque régionale a dégagé 403 millions de gains en éliminant 38 milliards d'euros de portefeuilles à risque. Comme quoi la qualité des actifs en jeu n'est pas forcément mauvaise… La banque munichoise peut voir venir : elle dispose d'une garantie jusqu'à 6 milliards d'euros de pertes. Ce parapluie lui est facturé 200 millions d'euros par an.

Au Royaume-Uni, RBS pourrait bientôt avoir sa « bad bank »

L'idée de séparer une banque en difficulté en une « good bank » et une « bad bank » a refait surface ces derniers jours au Royaume-Uni. Alors que beaucoup pensent encore outre-Manche qu'il faut recapitaliser le secteur encore davantage pour relancer les prêts à l'économie, le concept de structure de défaisance a en effet été évoqué en référence à Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), sauvé en 2008 et toujours détenu à 82 % par l'Etat. Plusieurs membres influents d'une commission parlementaire sur les affaires bancaires seraient favorables à ce scénario, même s'il est loin d'être acquis. Le verdict de cette commission est attendu cette semaine.

Avec des banques ayant atteint une taille géante avant la crise du « subprime », le Royaume-Uni a été particulièrement bousculé par la tourmente. Pourtant, la scission entre « good bank » et « bad bank » n'a été pratiquée que pour Northern Rock - dont la « bonne banque » a finalement été cédée à perte à Virgin Money - et pour Bradford & Bingley. L'Etat gère toujours près de 69 milliards de prêts toxiques hérités de ces établissements.

Des centaines de milliards de livres d'actifs toxiques

RBS et Lloyds, qui étaient au bord de l'explosion, ont de leur côté bénéficié d'une injection de capital par l'Etat et de la mise en place d'un système d'assurance (« asset protection scheme », APS) de leurs centaines de milliards de livres d'actifs toxiques. Elles ont progressivement réussi à se défaire de l'APS, qui leur coûtait cher en rémunération de l'Etat.

Encore plus touché par la crise, le système bancaire irlandais n'a quant à lui pas pu échapper à la mise en place d'une gigantesque « bad bank » pour cinq de ses plus gros établissements. La Nama (National Asset Management Agency) a ainsi récupéré 74 milliards d'actifs douteux de Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland, Anglo Irish Bank, Irish Nationwide Building Society et EBS Building Society.


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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::str() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/ecrire/tools/multicat/functions.php on line 539

Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

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Strict Standards: Non-static method dt::_callback() should not be called statically in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/inc/libs/lib.date.php on line 35

Calendrier


Deprecated: Non-static method util::getNextPrev() should not be called statically, assuming $this from incompatible context in /home/gillesbe/www/ramassi/dotclear/layout/class.xblog.php on line 110

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